Summary: The 48-team World Cup 2026 has seen smaller nations challenge football giants. BBC Sport identified three tactical patterns that separate successful underdogs from those that failed. This article examines the failures of Saudi Arabia and Sweden as cautionary lessons.
The expanded 48-team World Cup 2026 has given smaller nations a global platform, but not all underdogs have succeeded. BBC Sport's tactical analysis reveals fundamental differences between teams that held giants at bay and those that were dismantled. Saudi Arabia and Sweden serve as instructive examples of what not to do.
Saudi Arabia deployed a 5-4-1 formation against Spain. In theory, five defenders should provide greater defensive solidity. In practice, the opposite proved true. The core problem was role clarity — or rather, the lack of it. Saudi Arabia's four-man midfield shifted too aggressively toward the ball side, leaving the opposite flank exposed. Spain recognized this immediately and switched play from left to right. Lamine Yamal and Pedro Porro found themselves in 2v1 situations against the Saudi wing-back. This overload directly led to Spain's third goal, scored by Mikel Oyarzabal from a Porro cross.
Sweden fared even worse. Their 5-3-2 formation meant only three midfielders — fewer than Saudi Arabia's four. Against the Netherlands, ranked 8th in the world, this deficiency proved catastrophic. Three midfielders could not cover the pitch's width. The Netherlands used their right winger to pin Sweden's left wing-back deep, while Denzel Dumfries made unchecked forward runs from deeper positions. Sweden conceded five goals. They improved only after switching to a 4-5-1 shape in the second half.
In contrast, Cape Verde and Ghana demonstrated the correct approach. Both used 4-5-1 formations with tight spacing between defensive and midfield lines. The key was discipline — refusing to be drawn out of position when opponents passed backward to create space. Both teams maintained their compact shape, forcing opponents to find solutions around or over the defensive block rather than through it.
On the attacking front, South Africa showed how small teams can create threats. With only 31% possession, they managed 14 shots. Their strategy: short goal kicks to draw the opposition press, then long balls into space. This high-risk approach cost them against Mexico — they conceded from exactly this situation — but when executed correctly, the rewards are substantial.
The key takeaway: five-at-the-back formations are not a guarantee. Positional discipline, width coverage, and courage in build-up play matter far more. Underdogs that master these three elements — like Cape Verde and Ghana — have a genuine chance to shock the football world.
Saran Link Internal: Saudi Arabia Tactical Mistakes vs Spain | Sweden vs Netherlands: Lessons Learned | South Africa Attacking Strategy
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